[Dialogue] The Game Is Over

[Mejpoole@aol.com]

In a message dated 8/23/2005 8:54:11 A.M. Pacific Standard Time,  
aulangca at stny.rr.com writes:

------------------------------------------------------------------------

It's over. For the United States to win the Iraq war  requires three things: 
defeating the Iraqi resistance; establishing a stable  government in Iraq that 
is friendly to the US; maintaining the support of the  American people while 
the first two are being none. None of these three seem  any longer possible. 
First, the US military itself no longer believes it can  defeat the resistance. 
Secondly, the likelihood that the Iraqi politicians can  agree on a 
constitution is almost nil, and therefore the likelihood of a  minimally stable central 
government is almost nil. Thirdly, the US public is  turning against the war 
because it sees no "light at the end of the tunnel".  

As a result, the Bush regime is in an  impossible position. It would like to 
withdraw in a dignified manner,  asserting some semblance of victory. But, if 
it tries to do this, it will face  ferocious anger and deception on the part 
of the war party at home. And if it  does not, it will face ferocious anger on 
the part of the withdrawal party. It  will end up satisfying neither, lose 
face precipitously, and be remembered in  ignominy.

Let us see what is happening.  This month, George Casey, the US commanding 
general in Iraq, suggested that it  may be possible to reduce US troops in Iraq 
next year by 30,000, given  improvements in the ability of the Iraqi 
government's armed forces to handle  the situation. Almost immediately, this position 
came under attack from the  war party, and the Pentagon amended this statement 
to suggest that maybe this  wouldn't happen, since maybe the Iraqi forces were 
not yet ready to handle the  situation, which is surely so. At the same time, 
stories appeared in the  leading newspapers suggesting that the level of 
military sophistication of the  insurgent forces has been growing steadily and 
remarkably. And the increased  rate of killings of US soldiers certainly bears 
this out.

In the debate on the Iraqi constitution, there are two major  problems. One 
is the degree to which the constitution will institutionalise  Islamic law. It 
is conceivable that, given enough time and trust, there could  be a compromise 
on this issue that would more or less satisfy most sides. But  the second 
issue is more intractable. The Kurds, who still really want an  independent 
state, will not settle for less than a federal structure that will  guarantee their 
autonomy, the maintenance of their militia, and control of  Kirkuk as their 
capital and its oil resources as their booty. The Shia are  currently divided 
between those who feel like the Kurds and want a federal  structure, and those 
who prefer a strong central government provided they can  control it and its 
resources, and provided that it will have an Islamic  flavour. And the Sunnis 
are desperate to maintain a united state, one in which  they will minimally get 
their fair share, and certainly don't want a state  governed by Shia 
interpretations of Islam.

The US has been trying to encourage some compromise, but it is hard to see  
what this might be. So, one of two possibilities are before us right now. The  
Iraqis paper over the differences in some way that will not last long. Or  
there is a more immediate breakdown in negotiations. Neither of these meets  the 
needs of the US. Of course, there is one solution that might end the  
deadlock. The Iraqi politicians could join the resisters in a nationalist  
anti-American thrust, and thereby unite at least the non-Kurd part of the  population. 
This development is not to be ruled out, and of course is a  nightmare from the 
US point of view.

But,  for the Bush regime, the worst picture of all is on the home front. 
Approval  rating of Bush for the conduct of the Iraqi war has gone down to 36 per 
cent.  The figures have been going steadily down for some time and should 
continue to  do so. For poor George W Bush is now faced with the vigil of Cindy 
Sheehan.  She is a 48-year-old mother of a soldier who was killed in Iraq a 
year ago.  Incensed by Bush's statement that the US soldiers died in a "noble 
cause", she  decided to go to Crawford, Texas, and ask to see the president so 
that he  could explain to her for what "noble cause" her son died.

Of course, Bush hasn't had the courage to see her. He sent out  emissaries. 
She said this wasn't enough, that she wanted to see Bush  personally. She has 
now said that she will maintain a vigil outside Bush's  home until either he 
sees her or she is arrested. At first, the press ignored  her. But now, other 
mothers of soldiers in Iraq have come to join her. She is  getting moral support 
from more and more people who had previously supported  the war. And the 
national press now has turned her into a major celebrity,  some comparing her to 
Rosa Parks, the Black lady whose refusal to move to the  back of the bus in 
Atlanta a half- century ago was the spark that transformed  the struggle for 
Black rights into a mainstream cause.

Bush won't see her because he knows there is nothing that he can  say to her. 
Seeing her is a losing proposition. But so is not seeing her. The  pressure 
to withdraw from Iraq is now becoming mainstream. It is not because  the US 
public shares the view that the US is an imperialist power in Iraq. It  is 
because there seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel. Or rather  there is a 
light, the light an acerbic Canadian cartoonist for the Calgary Sun  drew 
recently. He shows a US soldier in a dark tunnel approaching someone to  whose body 
is attached an array of explosives. The light comes from the match  he is 
holding to the wick that will cause them to explode. In the month  following the 
attacks in London and the high level of US deaths in Iraq, this  is the light 
that the US public is beginning to see. They want out. Bush is  caught in an 
insoluble dilemma. The war is lost.


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Janice Ulangca
3413 Stratford  Drive
Vestal, NY   13850
607-797-4595
aulangca at stny.rr.com
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