[Dialogue] Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Report

[chagnon@comcast.net]

Colleagues, This is the article for which Harry Wainwright sent us the URL.  I have  copied it for those of you who may have missed it.  Very sobering.  Following it is the other URL that Harry sent.  Thanks much, Harry.  Keep 'em coming. 

CITIZEN-TIMES.com
http://citizen-times.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2005507170312

We may face a short window of time to save planet from destruction 
By Harry Petrequin July 17, 2005

Five years ago, recognizing the potential threat that environmental degradation posed for people around the  world, the U.N. secretary general called for the first-ever scientific assessment of the health of the world's  major ecosystems. The results are contained in the recently published Millennium Ecosystem Assessment  (MA), which involved data gathering and analysis on every continent and in all the oceans by nearly 1,400  scientists from 95 countries. The bottom line of this assessment is that without swift action, the fragile web  of life on which we depend is in jeopardy. The MA received extensive coverage in the foreign press, none  in U.S. media. All of the findings and conclusions of the 15 volumes of the MA underwent rigorous peer review  including members of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and other prestigious American scientific  institutions. Among its accomplishments was reconciliation of satellite and surface measurements of the  past two decades. The data and analysis for conclusions reached, as well as the models used for future  trends and recommendations, are available at www.millenniumanalysis.org. This four-year, $20 million study is the most comprehensive look ever undertaken of the earth's  atmospheric composition, ocean ecosystems, coastal zones, land cover, forests, freshwater systems and  global biodiversity. The study found that over the last 50 years humans have changed the structure and  functioning of the world's ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any period in human history, in  the process depleting the earth's natural resources and degrading its environment at an unprecedented rate  and scale. The MA finds that Planet Earth has now entered the Anthropocene Era, a new geological era in which  humans are the dominant force affecting radical changes in ecosystems. Records from the geological past  indicate that never before has the earth experienced the current magnitude of simultaneous changes that are  devastating and disrupting the balance and synergies among the life support systems of this planet. Analysis of data gathered provides the basis for these teams of scientists to warn that the ongoing  degradation of 15 of the 24 ecosystem services examined is increasing the likelihood of potentially abrupt  changes that will seriously affect human well-being. These include shifts in regional climates, the emergence of new diseases, storms and hurricanes of greater  frequency and intensity, sudden changes in water quality, the collapse of fisheries and the creation of "dead  zones" along coasts such as the huge areas of the Gulf of Mexico transformed by chemicals flowing from  the Mississippi River. Human-caused releases of carbon dioxide and other climate-warming gases have created a planetary  energy imbalance, with the earth now absorbing more heat than it gives off. Present levels of carbon  dioxide, the number one global warming culprit, are 30 percent above pre-industrial levels and higher than  at any time in more than 400,000 years. The rise in global temperatures of up to 10 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century, as now predicted, is a rate of increase to which most species will be unable to adapt, as many did in previous gradual climatic  changes. As a result, we are witnessing a mammoth irreversible loss in the diversity of life on earth, with  between 18 percent and 35 percent of the planet's species predicted to become extinct by the year 2050, and  some two-thirds by the end of the 21st century. This will be the largest species extinction since the  dinosaurs were eradicated 65 million years ago. The MA estimates that a greater proportion of the cumulative adverse effects of 60 percent of the world's ecosystems being degraded or used unsustainably will fall on the most destitute of earth's population in  developing nations. Social and political unrest will likely intensify. The MA states that any progress achieved in addressing the United Nations Millennium Development  Goals of poverty and hunger eradication, improved health, and environmental protection is unlikely to be  sustained if most of the ecosystem services on which humanity relies continue to be degraded. For  example, if global warming is not curtailed, the current accelerating rate at which snowcaps in the  Himalayan Mountain range are receding will, by the latter half of the 21st century, cause devastating winter  floods and insufficient spring melt to feed the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong Rivers. Hundreds of millions of people depend upon the seasonal flows of these rivers for irrigated crops. Also,  the melting of the Artic and Greenland icecaps at the current rate could alter the North Atlantic's "Ocean  Conveyor Belt" of the world's weather systems. The global population has tripled since 1930 to more than six billion and will continue to grow for several  decades. The global economy has increased more than 15-fold since 1950. Our educational and political  systems, as well as many of our religious beliefs, still consider nature as something that is "out there," only  to be exploited by mankind. We have created legions of MBAs and economists to propagate a global  economy based on consumerism. All of them can obtain their professional credentials without ever having  contemplated the implications of an economic system devoid of environmental considerations  indispensable for life on this planet. We are belatedly coming to realize that humans are deeply embedded in the natural world, and the health of  natural systems has a profound effect on our quality of life. That is why this Millennium Assessment  focused especially on how ecosystem health affects human well-being. The United States, with 4 percent of the planet's population, utilizes 33 percent of the resources made  available each year (including 25 percent of the world's oil), produces 35 percent of the waste and 25  percent of the atmospheric gases causing climate change. Without a leadership role by the United States in attempting to mitigate the ongoing destruction of earth's  biosphere, little can be done. Americans have the most to lose from global environmental decline and the  most to contribute to finding solutions to the challenges we face. The first democracy in North America, the Iroquois Confederation, had as the governing dictum for its  Council of Elders, "Do Nothing That Would Harm the Next Seven Generations." Unless drastic and  immediate action is taken to implement the recommendations made in the Millennium Ecosystem  Assessment, it is open to question whether there will be a seventh generation to recall that ours was the  first guilty of "geocide" - killing the planet. 

Harry Petrequin worked for 30 years with the U. S. Agency for International Development in Asia and  Africa. Since retirement he has worked as a consultant in these regions, most recently with the Asian  Development Bank. 
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> http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspx