[Dialogue] McGovern: The Way Out of Iraq

[Janice Ulangca]

McGovern was among those who gave input to the Baker-Hamilton commission that will be giving recommendations to President Bush next week. I'm not holding my breath for his ideas to be central in new policy, unless lots of public interest. Travelling in October, I bought the Harper's magazine, and was impressed by the pragmatism, idealism, and comprehensiveness of this plan. So I summarized main points from the Harper's essay.  Note what could be done with what we now spend in a few days! 
Janice Ulangca
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The Way Out of War

A Blueprint for Leaving Iraq Now

 

>From essay in Oct. Harper's by George McGovern, former Democratic presidential candidate, & William Polk, founder-director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Chicago.  Adapted from their book "Out of Iraq", published in October.

 

“Staying in Iraq is not an option. Even those Americans most eager to invade Iraq now urge that we find a way out. (Included are) civilian "strategists" and other "hawks", senior military commanders, and, perhaps most fervently, combat soldiers…

 

“Polls show that as few as 2 percent of Iraqis consider Americans to be liberators…

 

“We suggest that phased withdrawal should begin on or before December 31, 2006, with the promise to make every effort to complete it by June 30, 2007. 

 

Withdrawal is not only a political imperative but a strategic requirement...Iraq has become, since the invasion, the primary recruiting and training ground for terrorists.  The longer American troops remain in Iraq, the more recruits will flood the ranks of those who oppose America not only in Iraq but elsewhere...

 

Current U.S. expenditures run at approximately $246 million each day, or more than $10 million an hour, with costs rising steadily each year.

 

At the end of every insurgency we have studied, there was a certain amount of chaos as the participants sought to establish a new civic order.  This predictable turmoil has given rise to the argument.. that Americans must "stay the course".  The argument is false.  When a driver is on the wrong road and headed for an abyss, it is a bad idea to "stay the course."  A nation afflicted with a failing and costly policy is not well-served by those calling for more of the same, and it is a poor idea to think that we can accomplish in the future what we are failing to accomplish in the present.

 

We are as powerless to prevent the turmoil that will ensue when we withdraw as we have been to stop the insurgency.  But we will have removed a major cause of the insurgency once we have withdrawn.

 

There are ways in which we can be helpful to the Iraqis - and protect our own interests - by ameliorating the underlying conditions and smoothing the edges of conflict.

 

Bridging Between the Occupation and Complete Independence




A temporary international stabilization force, probably most acceptable to Iraqis if drawn from Arab or Muslim countries.  For example, five contingents of 3,000 from Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, plus two or more of these nations:  Jordan, Syria, Pakistan, Bangladesh, or Indonesia.

It would benefit both Iraq and the United States if we were to pay for this force.  Assuming that a ballpark figure would be $500 per man per day, and that 15,000 men would be required for two years, the overall cost would be $5.5 billion. That is approximately 3% of what it would cost to continue the war, with American troops, for the next two years. Not only would this represent a great monetary saving, but it would spare countless American lives and would give Iraq the breathing space it needs to recover from the trauma of occupation in a way that does not violate national and religious sensibilities.

 

(Additional sensible suggestions re this force are given, including that the money be paid to the Iraqi government which would then "hire" the police services it requires from other governments, and that American military equipment there be turned over to this force.)

 

Combating "Warlordism" and other forms of large-scale crime

 

This will require that "the national police force involve local leaders, so as to ensure that the home guards operate only within their own territory and with appropriate action"... While the international stabilization force completes its work, the creation of a national police force is, and must be, an Iraqi task.  American interference would be, and has been, counterproductive... The American withdrawal package should include provision of $1 billion to help the Iraqi government create, train and equip such a (national police) force, which is roughly the cost of four days of the present American occupation.

 

Shifting Iraqi Soldiers from Army to Reconstruction Corps

 

It is not in the interest of Iraq to encourage the growth and heavy armament of a reconstituted Iraqi army. The civilian government of Iraq should be.. aware that previous Iraqi armies have frequently acted against Iraqi civic institutions... We cannot prevent the reconstitution of an Iraqi army, but we should not, as we are currently doing, actually encourage this at a cost of billions to the American taxpayer... We should encourage Iraq to transfer what soldiers it has already recruited for its army into a national reconstruction corps modeled on the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers...The U.S. could encourage rebuilding infrastructure damaged by the war with an allocation of, say, $500 million, or roughly the cost of two days of the current occupation.

 

Other Recommendations

  a.. Stop work immediately on, withdraw from, U.S. military bases. "This will save American taxpayers billions over the next two years" 
  b.. Construct a normal-size U.S. embassy 
  c.. Withdraw mercenaries "Personal Security Detail" (now 25,000 "loose cannons" with little interference from U.S. or British military justice systems) 
  d.. Dig up and destroy landmines and other unexploded ordinance, and clean up depleted uranium used in artillery shells.  One day's wartime expenditure, roughly $250 million, would pay for surveys of the damage and a plan to deal with it. 
  e.. Wartime damage to infrastructure is estimated by World Bank at at least $25 billion.  They suggest U.S. allocate for planning and organization of the reconstruction, $1 billion, or roughly four days of current wartime expenditure.  After a planning survey is completed, U.S. should contribute generously to a fund to do the work, using Iraqi firms who would hire Iraqi labor, helping combat the severe unemployment in Iraq. 
  f.. Oil contracts, without competitive international bids, selling oil at a discount to American companies, should be renegotiated.  “The form of concession set up… (now, under the occupation) has been estimated to deprive Iraq of as much as $194 billion in oil revenues.  To most Iraqis, and indeed to many foreigners, the move to turn over Iraq’s oil reserves to American and British companies surely confirms that the real purpose of the invasion was to secure, for American use and profit, Iraq’s.. oil.”  Future oil transactions should be fair and transparent.
Additional important help to Iraq, that would move toward a relationship of friendship - with costs compared to current military spending on Iraq:

 

--    Reparations to Iraqi civilians for lives and property lost.  “Assuming the number of unjustified deaths to be 50,000, and the compensation per person to be $10,000, our outlay would run to only $500 million, or two days’ cost of the war.”

--    “The maximum cost of rebuilding Iraq’s public- health system would amount to less than what we spend on the occupation every twenty days.”

--    Fellowships for the training of lawyers, judges, journalists, social workers and other civil-affairs workers could be offered for two days’ cost of the war, or $500 million.

--    “Assistance to grass roots organizations and professional societies could help encourage the return to Iraq of the thousands of skilled men and women who left … following the first Gulf war.”  This would include relocation and supplementary pay for medical practitioners, teachers, etc.   “Assuming that some 10,000 skilled workers could be enticed to return for, say, an average of $50,000, this would represent a cost to the American taxpayer of $500 million.  Roughly two days’ cost of the war would be a very small price to pay to restore the health and vigor of Iraqi society and to improve America’s reputation throughout the world.”

 

 

 

 

 

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Janice Ulangca
3413 Stratford Drive
Vestal, NY  13850
607-797-4595
aulangca at stny.rr.com
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