[Dialogue] Seeking a middle ground

Thu Dec 7 17:20:18 EST 2006

Seeking a middle ground

Dina
<mailto:dezzat at ahram.org.eg?subject=Front%20Page%20::%20Seeking%20a%20middle
%20ground>  Ezzat reports on Arab diplomatic efforts to prevent Iraq and
Lebanon from sinking deeper into chaos 

  _____  

Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa was expected to arrive in
Washington yesterday on a one-week visit in which he will meet with senior
US and UN officials in Washington and New York. Developments in Iraq and
Lebanon will top the agenda of discussions.

"It is clear the US is reconsidering its policy towards the Middle East at a
particularly crucial moment. What Moussa will try to do during his talks
with American officials and influential think- tankers is to present an Arab
perspective of the on-going debate," Moussa's chief of staff Hesham Youssef
told Al-Ahram Weekly.

Moussa's visit to the US comes at a time of increasing sectarian violence in
Iraq and political polarisation in Lebanon. It follows on the heels of
intensive Arab diplomatic efforts -- collective and Egyptian-Saudi -- to
contain Shia-Sunni, and other sectarian, confrontations. The visit comes
days after US President George W Bush presented the Iraqi government with an
ultimatum to get their act together, and after Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice has been urging key regional capitals, including Cairo and
Riyadh, to use their influence on Sunni factions in Iraq and Lebanon.

With two major reports on the need to adjust policy in Iraq, produced by the
Pentagon and the Hamilton-Baker Committee, the US is reportedly considering
a dramatic change in its policy towards Iraq. 

"We are going to withdraw from Iraq on a phased 18-month scheme and we are
going to declare victory and leave it to the Iraqis and the regional players
to put the situation in order," predicted one member of the US Congress. 

Senior Iraqi sources say they have reached agreement with Washington on the
details of the gradual withdrawal of US troops. Within the next six months,
they say, Iraqi troops will be in control of most crucial areas, including
Baghdad. 

On Tuesday Robert Gates, approved by the Senate as defence secretary, said
that his "greatest worry if we mishandle the next year or two and leave Iraq
in chaos is that a variety of regional powers will become involved in Iraq
and we will have a regional conflict on our hands". Gates's statements came
on the eve of yesterday's publication in the US of the Iraq Study Group's
report compiled by a high-level panel headed by James Baker and Lee
Hamilton. 

"We do not recommend a 'stay the course' solution. In our opinion that
approach is no longer viable," Baker said. The report recommended that the
US should reduce its "political, military or economic support" for Iraq if
the government in Baghdad cannot make substantial progress towards providing
for its own security. "Our most important recommendations call for new and
enhanced diplomatic political efforts in Iraq, and the region and a change
in the primary mission of the US force in Iraq that will enable the US to
begin to move its combat forces out of Iraq responsibly," the report
concluded.

Many Arab capitals favour a less aggressive and provocative US military
presence in Iraq. Like Gates, though, there are concerns -- especially in
Riyadh -- of the impact a sudden down-sizing of US troops will have, and its
possible spill over effects. This week, and jointly with Cairo, Riyadh
underlined the need for the US to coordinate future moves with all concerned
capitals and not just with the Iraqi governments. 

While aware of the differences between sectarian violence in Iraq and
polarisation in Lebanon, Arab capitals hope they can work closely with the
Americans, and the French, to gradually defuse tensions in both countries.

On Tuesday a limited Arab foreign ministers meeting to discuss developments
in both Iraq and Lebanon was held at the headquarters of the Arab League.
The meeting voiced concern over recent developments in both countries and
called upon political adversaries to meet compromise. According to the final
communiqué Iraqi factions will be re-approached and asked to work towards an
all-inclusive reconciliation conference to be held under the umbrella of the
Arab League -- tentatively in Baghdad -- within four months. Addressing a
press conference after the meeting on Tuesday, Moussa said that as a crucial
part of the preparations leading up to the reconciliation meeting, the Iraqi
government should take steps to dissolve all militias implicated in
sectarian violence. 

Behind closed doors Moussa and Arab foreign ministers -- Syria was not
present -- promised Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiar Zebari they would
cooperate closely with the Iraqi government on condition that it resisted
what was described as "Iranian attempts to control Iraq or create an
independent Shia state in southern Iraq". 

Zebari promised cooperation but insisted that Arab countries need to send
"more positive signals to all Iraqis" to stop Shias in Iraq from perceiving
Arab states as an exclusively pro-Sunni force. According to informed Iraqi
sources, Zebari told his counterparts at the meeting that his government has
turned down an offer of becoming part of a proposed Iranian-Syrian-Iraqi
axis.

The Arab ministerial meeting also discussed ways to contain sectarian strife
in Lebanon. In a separate communiqué Arab foreign ministers called on
Lebanon to react positively to the reconciliation proposal offered by Moussa
during talks with leading Lebanese political figures while on a two-day
visit to Beirut on Sunday and Monday. During talks with Lebanese Prime
Minister Fouad Al-Seniora, and to Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Beri whose
Shia Amal Movement is supporting the Hizbullah- led call for the formation
of a national unity government, Moussa proposed a middle-of-the-road formula
in which the opposition is given a more influential role in government in
return for supporting the work of the international tribunal that will try
suspects involved in the killing of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik
Al-Hariri. 

Moussa also suggested that both sides should meet to agree on a new
electoral law that would allow for legislative and other elections to take
place earlier than scheduled. In his press conference on Tuesday, Moussa
declined to confirm or deny the details of his proposal, saying
consultations with Lebanese leaders were on-going. He also declined to
confirm reports that he has been in contact with Damascus over developments
in Lebanon.

While in the US Moussa is expected to encourage the re-engagement of Syria
as a regional player. "Arabs should not be part of any attempt to isolate
Syria -- rather the opposite," Moussa insisted on Tuesday. Given the
Baker-Hamilton report is expected to urge the US administration to engage
Syria in solving the Iraqi debacle, Moussa's call for Washington to rethink
its policy vis- à-vis Damascus is unlikely to fall on deaf ears.

Al-Ahram Weekly Online : Located at:
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2006/823/fr1.htm 

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