[Dialogue] Global jihad's new front in Africa

Mon Dec 11 18:14:48 EST 2006

 <http://www.csmonitor.com> csmonitor.com - The Christian Science Monitor
Online

from the December 12, 2006 edition -
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/1212/p01s02-woaf.html 

Global jihad's new front in Africa 

As Islamists take over Somalia, its Western-backed neighbor Ethiopia
prepares for war. 

By Scott
<http://www.csmonitor.com/cgi-bin/encryptmail.pl?ID=D3E3EFF4F4A0C2E1ECE4E1F5
E6>  Baldauf | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor 

ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA 

A new front in the global struggle for Islamist rule is emerging in Africa.
And there are worrisome signs that battles between Somalia's rising Union of
Islamic Courts (IUC) and the country's foundering Western-backed government
might soon engulf the entire Horn of Africa in a regional war.

Last week, the UN Security Council voted to send peacekeeping forces to
Somalia, a move the Islamists say would be met with holy war. But
neighboring Ethiopia isn't waiting for the UN. As the Islamists continue to
take town after town away from Somalia's transitional government, and to
march closer to its border, Ethiopia is gearing up for all-out war.
Meanwhile, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Sudan are eyeing the conflict and taking
sides.

"The fact that the UN resolution was backed by the US suggests that it puts
Somalia into the global war on terror, and that has the potential to
mobilize a lot of countries and groups that have been divorced from Somalia
thus far," says Matt Bryden a consultant with the Brussels-based
International Crisis Group.

Ethiopia has been sending troops across the border for months and its
parliament last week approved a resolution of self-defense against Somalia
in the event of war.

"We have said, OK, the Islamic Courts are a fact in Somalia, so let's sit
down and negotiate," says a senior Ethiopian diplomat, speaking on condition
of anonymity. "But the UIC is not interested in solving this matter
peacefully. Whenever we negotiate with them, before the ink is dry, they are
taking more territory."

"We are not in a hurry to engage in fighting in Somalia, but if we are
forced, we will defend ourselves," he says.

This weekend, Somalia saw the fiercest fighting yet between forces of the
UIC and the Ethiopian-backed Transitional Federal Government.

A senior military official of the transitional government confirmed the
fighting, without giving numbers for casualties, but UIC vice chairman
Sheikh Sharif immediately claimed that his nation was under attack by
foreign forces, and reaffirmed the UIC's call for a jihad, or religious
struggle, to remove them. "We have inflicted harm on Ethiopian troops. Let
us fight against the Ethiopians."

Fertile ground for proxy wars 

As a country with no central government for more than 15 years, Somalia has
become a dangerous playground for other people's wars. Neighboring
countries, such as Eritrea and Ethiopia, use Somalia as a proxy war to fight
each other, placing their own troops in Somalia supporting opposing sides of
the internal civil war. Ethiopian separatist groups such as the Ogaden
National Liberation Front and the Oromo Liberation Front use Somalia as a
base to fight for independence from Ethiopia. Most worrisome to the Western
world, however, is that the lack of central control has allowed extremist
groups to bring their pro-Al Qaeda agenda into Africa.

But the increasingly open movements of Ethiopian troops in Somalia are fast
becoming an emotional unifying force for the Islamists, who are calling on
Somalis to defend their national sovereignty.

Debate over sending peacekeepers 

"I think in its present form, a foreign peacekeeping mission is more likely
to exacerbate the problem," says Mr. Bryden. Small groups of foreign forces
will have difficulty holding their own against Somali fighters, who
specialize in hit-and-run attacks with their truck-mounted machine guns, he
says.

But more troublesome is that foreign troops will play into the hands of the
Islamists.

In any case, many Ethiopian officials and experts say that they have no
choice but to fight. The looming war in Somalia is part of the unfinished
business of Ethiopia's two-year border war with Eritrea, which ended in
exhaustion rather than a negotiated peace treaty. Ethiopian officials allege
that the rise of Somalia's Islamists was made possible by Eritrean
logistical support, and a UN Monitoring Group report has charged that
Eritrea, Egypt, Djibouti, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Libya, and Sudan have
all contributed funds, arms, and technical support to help Somalia's
Islamists take control.

Medhane Tadesse, an Ethiopian historian, says that Ethiopia has been forced
into a corner by its neighbors, and will have to come out fighting.

"The idea of Eritrea is to get back at Ethiopia. The Arab bloc are doing
this as part of a global Islamic issue," says Mr. Tadesse, director of the
Center for Policy Research and Dialogue in Addis Ababa.

Tadesse says Ethiopia must fight, and the sooner the better. "The Islamists
consider themselves revolutionaries, and somebody should stop them. Unless
you do that, the Islamists may go short of targets before they go short of
bullets," he says.

Abdikarim Farah, ambassador of the Somali transitional government, welcomed
last week's UN resolution to arm his government and provide peacekeepers.
"Whether this is a proxy war or not, it will happen, and if the Islamists
succeed, it is going to be a regional conflict," he says.

But in a country that was once predominantly Christian, but is now 50
percent Muslim, all eyes are turning toward what Ethiopian Muslims would do
if war was declared on another Muslim country.

Sheikh Sayeed Hassan, an ethnic Somali who runs a khat beit, where men come
to chew khat, a leaf chewed for its stimulating effects, says that
Ethiopia's Muslim community is hoping that war can be averted.

"People inside Somalia, they are saying that we have been fighting among
ourselves for 60 years, but now, when the Islamic Courts are uniting the
country, why do the foreign governments want to intervene?" says Sheikh
Sayeed. "I think if foreign troops come, the Somali people will react."

He sighs. "Every day we expect war, but so far, there is no serious
fighting. So we hope the government [of Ethiopia] will change its mind."

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