[Dialogue] U.S. Retreat from Iraq? The Secret Story

Fri Nov 24 12:30:17 EST 2006

Published on Wednesday, November 22, 2006 by the Huffington
<http://www.huffingtonpost.com>  Post 

U.S. Retreat from Iraq? The Secret Story 

by Tom Hayden 

According to credible Iraqi sources in London and Amman, a secret story of
America's diplomatic exit strategy from Iraq is rapidly unfolding. The key
events include:

First, James Baker told one of Saddam Hussein's lawyers that Tariq Aziz,
former deputy prime minister, would be released from detention by the end of
this year, in hope that he will negotiate with the US on behalf of the Baath
Party leadership. The discussion recently took place in Amman, according to
the Iraqi paper al-Quds al-Arabi. 

Second, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice personally appealed to the Gulf
Cooperation Council in October to serve as intermediaries between the US and
armed Sunni resistance groups [not including al Qaeda], communicating a US
willingness to negotiate with them at any time or place. Speaking in early
October, Rice joked that if then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld "heard
me now, he would wage a war on me fiercer and hotter than he waged on Iraq,"
according to an Arab diplomat privy to the closed session. 

Third, there was an "unprecedented" secret meeting of high-level Americans
and representatives of "a primary component of the Iraqi resistance" two
weeks ago, lasting for three days. As a result, the Iraqis agreed to return
to the talks in the next two weeks with a response for the American side,
according to Jordanian press leaks and al-Quds al-Arabi. 

Fourth, detailed email transmissions dated November 16 reveal an active
American effort behind the scenes to broker a peace agreement with Iraqi
resistance leaders, a plot that could include a political coup against Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

Fifth, Bush security adviser Stephen Hadley carried a six-point message for
Iraqi officials on his recent trip to Baghdad:

*	include Iraqi resistance and opposition leaders in any initiative
towards national reconciliation; general amnesty for the armed resistance
fighters;
*	dissolve the Iraqi commission charged with banning the Baath Party;
*	start the disbanding of militias and death squads;
*	cancel any federalism proposal to divide Iraq into three regions,
and combine central authority for the central government with greater
self-rule for local governors;
*	distribute oil revenues in a fair manner to all Iraqis, including
the Sunnis whose regions lack the resource.

Prime Minister Al-Maliki was unable to accept the American proposals because
of his institutional allegiance to Shiite parties who believe their historic
moment has arrived after one thousand years of Sunni domination. That Shiite
refusal has accelerated secret American efforts to pressure, re-organize, or
remove the elected al-Maliki regime from power. 

The Backstory

Underlying these developments are three American concerns: first, the
deepening quagmire and sectarian strife on the battlefield; second, the
mid-year American elections in which voters repudiated the war; and third,
the strategic concern that the new Iraq has slipped into the orbit of Iran.
It remains to be seen if Iran will exercise influence on its Shiite allies
in Iraq (the Grand Ayatollah Sistani was born in Iraq, and the main Shiite
bloc was created in Iran by Iraqi exiles). But that is the direction being
taken by Baker's Iraq Study Group and former CIA director John Deutch in a
<http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/15/opinion/15deutch.html?_r=1&oref=slogin>
New York Times op-ed. The principal US track, in addition to a declared
withdrawal plan, should be to work towards a hands-off policy by Iran, at
least for an interval, according to Deutch.

This possible endgame has been in the making for some time. Even two years
ago, US officials were probing contacts with Iraqi resistance groups
distinct from al-Qaeda. Recent polls indicate sixty percent Iraqi support
for armed resistance against the United States, while approximately eighty
percent of Iraqis support some timetable for withdrawal, an indispensable
indicator for Iraqi insurgents laying down some arms.

Even before the 2003 US invasion, peace groups like Global Exchange and the
newly-forming Code Pink sent delegations to create people-to-people
relations with Iraqi opponents of the occupation and members of civil
society. This writer met with Iraqi exiles in London, who suggested further
meetings in Amman. Those contacts were facilitated in 2005 by a former
Jordanian diplomat, Munther Haddadin, who supported open-ended discussions
with Iraqis in exile, Jordan's Crown Prince Hassan, and with intermediaries
from the insurgency who made the dangerous 15-hour drive from Baghdad to
Amman on more than one occasion. A reporter for the San Francisco Chronicle,
Rob Collier, also interviewed Iraqi insurgents and was helpful in providing
contacts. Earlier this year, an American peace delegation, including Cindy
Sheehan, found themselves in two days of meetings with Iraqis of every
political stripe. US Congressman Jim McDermott (D-WA) was crucial in making
these contracts possible. Dal Lamagna, a self-described "frustrated
peacemaker" made both trips to Amman, and provided this writer with videos
and transcripts of the interviews on which this article is based.

It must be emphasized that there is no reason to believe that these US
gestures are anything more than probes, in the historic spirit of
divide-and-conquer, before escalating the Iraq war in a Baghdad offensive.
Denial plausibility - aka Machiavellian secrecy - remains American security
policy, for understandable if undemocratic reasons.

Yet Americans who voted in the November election because of a deep belief
that a change of government in Washington might end the war have a right to
know that their votes counted. The US has not abandoned its entire strategy
in Iraq, but is offering significant concessions without its own citizens
knowing.

Tom Hayden was a leader of the anti-war movement during the Vietnam era. He
has enlisted as a chronicler of the government's plans for Iraq, and a
self-appointed internet strategist for the anti-war movement since 2003. He
can be contacted at www.tomhayden.com.

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