[Dialogue] Iraq, Overstretched Army Bring Bush New Grief

[Harry Wainwright]

Published on Tuesday, September 26, 2006 by the Inter
<http://www.ipsnews.net>  Press Service 

Iraq, Overstretched Army Bring Bush New Grief 

by Jim Lobe

 

WASHINGTON - With the U.S. intelligence community agreed that the invasion
and occupation of Iraq have made this country less safe from terrorist
threats, President George W. Bush appears now to be facing a growing revolt
among top military commanders who say U.S. ground forces are stretched close
to the breaking point. 

According to Monday's Los Angeles Times, the Army's top officer, Gen. Peter
Schoomaker, has called for nearly a 50 percent increase in spending -- to
nearly 140 billion dollars -- in 2008 to cope with the situation in Iraq and
maintain minimal readiness for possible emergencies. 

To convey his seriousness, Schoomaker reportedly withheld the Army's
scheduled budget request last month in what the Times called an
"unprecedented... protest" against previous rejections by the White House of
funding increases. 

The news of Schoomaker's action, which is almost certain to intensify the
growing debate over what to do in Iraq just seven weeks before the Nov. 7
mid-term Congressional elections, comes just days after the New York Times
reported that the Army is considering activating substantially more National
Guard troops or reservists. 

Such a decision, which would run counter to previous administration pledges
to limit overseas deployments for the Guard, would pose serious political
risks for the Republicans if it was taken before the elections. 

Unlike career soldiers, the Guard consists mainly of "citizen-soldiers" with
families and jobs and deep roots in local communities. When the Pentagon
last called up substantial numbers of Guard units for service in Iraq and
Afghanistan in late 2003 and 2004, the move elicited a strong backlash in
communities across the country. 

With the war even less popular now than it was then, any major new call-up
is likely to trigger renewed protests, particularly in light of the growing
sense both among the national security elites and the general population
that the administration's decision to invade Iraq was a major mistake and
that the war is unwinnable. 

Recent public opinion polls have shown that the public has become
increasingly pessimistic about the war's outcome and its impact on the
larger "global war on terror". 

Earlier this month, for example, a New York Times/CBS poll found that nearly
two-thirds of respondents believed the war in Iraq was going either
"somewhat" (28 percent) or "very badly" (33 percent). 

For most of the past year, a majority of respondents in various polls have
said they believe the decision to go to war in Iraq was a mistake and that
it has made the United States less, rather than more, safe from terrorism. 

The fact that a similar conclusion was reportedly reached by the 16
agencies, including the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) that make up the
U.S. intelligence community last April in a rare National Intelligence
Estimate (NIE) is likely to add to the public's pessimism. 

The NIE, some of whose contents were leaked to the New York Times and the
Washington Post over the weekend, found that the Iraq war has invigorated
Islamic radicalism worldwide and aggravated the terrorist threat faced by
the United States and other countries. 

While the director of national intelligence, John Negroponte, insisted
Sunday that the newspaper accounts of the report's conclusions were partial
and selective, they nonetheless backed up what a number of former senior
intelligence analysts -- most recently, the recently retired head of the
CIA's Political Islam Strategic Analysis Programme, Emile Nakhleh -- have
been saying individually for much of the past year. 

While Democratic lawmakers called Monday for the administration to
immediately declassify the NIE, "Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications
for the United States", so that the public could decide for itself, it is
certain to intensify the debate about whether to begin withdrawing from Iraq
or whether to "stay the course" there, despite the growing sectarian
violence and the wear and tear on U.S. ground forces. 

For most of the past year, the administration and senior military commanders
expressed hope that they could reduce U.S. forces in Iraq from the
approximately 140,000 troops who were there last December to help protect
the parliamentary elections by as much as 30,000 by the end of this year. 

But, with the rise in sectarian violence, particularly in Baghdad, that
followed the bombing last winter of a major Shiite shrine in Samarra,
Washington has been forced to abandon those hopes. Last week, the senior
U.S. Middle East commander, Gen. John Abizaid, made it official when he told
reporters here that he needed at least 140,000 troops in Iraq through next
spring. 

Even this number of troops, however, has not proved sufficient to curb the
violence in Baghdad, while a recent report from the senior Marine
intelligence officer in Anbar province, which comprises about one-third of
Iraq's total territory, warned that the 30,000 U.S. troops deployed there
could not defeat the Sunni insurgency without the addition of at least
13,000 troops and substantially more economic assistance. 

Adding to the burden on the army and the marines, the resurgence of the
Taliban has forced Washington to cancel plans to reduce forces in
Afghanistan from 19,000 earlier this year to around 16,000 by this fall. 

Instead, Washington currently has more than 20,000 troops deployed there
amid signs that more may be needed if NATO fails to provide more troops of
its own or if, in light of the retreat of Pakistani forces from neighbouring
Waziristan, the Taliban mount an even bigger offensive from across the
border next spring after the snows melt. 

These commitments have taken a huge, unanticipated toll on U.S. land forces,
not just in manpower, but in equipment and money, as well. 

Before the war, the Pentagon's political appointees confidently predicted
that Iraq's oil production would very quickly pay for the invasion's
financial costs and that Washington could draw down U.S. forces to as few as
30,000 by the end of 2003. 

In fact, about 400 billion dollars -- almost all of it for military
operations -- has been appropriated for both the Iraq and Afghanistan wars
since September 2001, and current operations there are running at about nine
billion dollars a month. 

The Army, which has some 500,000 active-duty soldiers, has been allocated 98
billion dollar this year, and the White House has cleared it to receive 114
billion dollars for 2008. But Schoomaker has reportedly asked for 139
billion dollars, including at least 13 billion dollars needed to repair
equipment. "There's no sense in us submitting a budget that we can't
execute, a broken budget," he warned recently in a speech here. 

In addition to strains on both the land forces and their equipment, senior
military leaders are also worried about attrition among mid-ranking
officers, in particular, and the quality and cost of new recruits. 

The military has greatly intensified its recruitment efforts, relaxed its
age and education requirements for enlistment, and offered unprecedented
bonuses and benefits packages -- worth thousands of dollars -- to enlistees
and active-duty soldiers who re-enlist. 

It has also increased enlistments by individuals with "'serious criminal
misconduct" in their records," and eased requirements of non-citizens -- of
which there are currently about 40,000 in the armed services -- and made
them eligible to citizenship after only one day of active-duty military
service. 

Copyright C 2006 IPS-Inter Press Service

###

 

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