[Dialogue] Iraq is a Mass of Contradictions; Oil is at Their Center

Fri Aug 3 13:38:27 EDT 2007

AlterNet

Iraq is a Mass of Contradictions; Oil is at Their Center

By Ben Lando, UPI
Posted on July 28, 2007, Printed on August 3, 2007
http://www.alternet.org/story/58221/

Iraq's government is in the eye of a storm of deadlines and benchmarks and
pressure from within and abroad. At some level, it's all about the oil.

The Parliament is to take next month off as key parties criticize the
government and vow to withdraw. Washington, dragged by the Democratic Party,
is looking for success or troop withdrawal. Iraq's citizens face more
violence and poverty and less electricity and fuels.

"We are still struggling to find a political resolution on a whole number of
issues," Iraqi Ambassador to the United States Samir Sumaida'ie told
reporters Wednesday during a briefing at the embassy. "We're still searching
for a common vision that will help us to deal with critical issues such as
the constitution and its amendments, Kirkuk, federalism and to the extent
that it will be applied outside Kurdistan, applied or not applied outside a
Kurdish area, oil law and revenue sharing."

All are linked, he said.

Iraq's constitution, passed in 2005, was vague on certain issues now being
targeted for amendment, including control over oil.

The constitution called for a referendum on disputed northern territories by
the end of next year, including the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. Iraq's Kurds
claim the city and other territories belong in the Kurdistan Regional
government's semi-autonomous region. Turkomen and Sunnis dispute it and the
outcry over its fate has sparked talk of delaying the referendum, which the
KRG refuses.

In Baghdad, parliamentarians are at a standstill over legislation splitting
up revenue, most of which comes from the sale of oil, and a law governing
the exploration and development of the crude. Iraq has 115 billion barrels
of proven oil reserves, the third largest in the world, and last year sales
of it funded more than 93 percent of the federal budget. Disputes over the
oil rally around whether the central or regional/local government should
control key oil fields. This dispute over federalism is inherent in the
holdup of the revenue sharing law. More than four years after liberation
from Saddam Hussein, the government of Iraq struggles to function.

"A gap still exists between the different parties and their way of looking
at this," Sumaida'ie said. "Intensive effort is going on to try to resolve
this."

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's coalition government is weakening. The
Iraqi Accordance Front, the largest Sunni bloc in the Shiite-dominated
coalition (with a heavy Kurdish partnership), has issued a list of demands
to be met. Maliki has one week or the bloc will withdraw its members. The
Kuwait News Agency reports IAF leader and Iraqi Vice President Tarek
al-Hashemi has submitted his resignation.

The Sadr Movement and Fadhila Party, two smaller Shiite parties with a large
citizen support base, have already withdrawn from the coalition. The
anti-Maliki sentiment is not solely related to his push for an oil law, but
the law is a major lightning rod.

"The law is discussed in the Parliament and in the Parliament there are
various groups and of course there are differences," Oil Minister Hussain
al-Shahristani told UPI during a telephone interview from Baghdad Wednesday
morning. "Like any other issue it will be debated and we try to close the
gaps and reach compromises."

All signs point to a Parliament that leaves for August recess without
approving the law.

President Bush is urging the government to reconcile their differences as
the troop surge assessment is due to Congress Sept. 15.

Ken Katzman, Middle East specialist at the Congressional Research Service,
said the fighting will subside "once there's a deal where there is an
equilibrium of power and money."

"I believe there's a mathematical equation to the fighting," he said, "once
they reach a stalemate on the battlefield, they will likely reach a
political compromise."

Iraqi Sunnis, which make up the largest share of the insurgency, want a
guarantee on revenue sharing and control over their own area, which has a
lot of violence and very little oil.

"The Sunni government will not accept Shiite-dominated forces in their
area," he said.

Shiites, the dominant faction in politics and armed militias, want a
guarantee on security, especially attacks on holy sites. They're in a better
position to bargain for control over oil and revenue than Sunnis and Kurds,
but face internal power struggles.

"The Kurds already have a lot of what they want," Katzman said:
semi-autonomous with economic development far beyond the rest of the
country, including starting development of its oil, much to the federal
government's consternation. The KRG area is protected by its own security
forces, the peshmerga, which has kept it relatively safe.

Rival Shiite parties will need to address internal issues, Katzman said. He
termed the struggle along class lines: The Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council
(formerly the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq) and Prime
Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Dawa Party are the main components of the
coalition in Baghdad, the upper class. The Sadr Movement and Fadhila Party,
while maintaining a presence in Baghdad politics, have solidified backing of
the poor and workers of Iraq, especially in oil-rich Basra, the main port
terminal. Disputes in Basra have turned bloody and all are leveraging
positions for control, especially of the oil industry there and the
lucrative oil and fuel smuggling racket.

"The issue for the lower classes is: are they getting the money, whether
legitimate or from smuggling," Katzman said, or are the "upper classes"
squeezing Sadr and Fadhila financially.

Meanwhile Iraq's citizens are fleeing en mass, with a 2 million strong
refugee count. Bodies are found daily. Those who remain face a dearth of
transportation, heating and cooking fuel. Electricity is out for long hours,
if not days at a time.

"The onus is on Iraq to demonstrate at least the ability that the political
process can produce solutions," Sumaida'ie said. "A sense of urgency exists
not necessarily from the Washington benchmarks but from the pressure from
the street. People are fed up with the current situation." 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://wedgeblade.net/pipermail/dialogue_wedgeblade.net/attachments/20070803/bf3b3249/attachment.html 
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: not available
Type: image/gif
Size: 1533 bytes
Desc: not available
Url : http://wedgeblade.net/pipermail/dialogue_wedgeblade.net/attachments/20070803/bf3b3249/attachment.gif 