[Dialogue] Al Gore Has Big Plans
FacilitationFla at aol.com
FacilitationFla at aol.com
Fri May 18 16:39:44 EDT 2007
A bit long but worth it
Al Gore Has Big Plans
By JAMES TRAUB
Published: May 20, 2007
Note: This essay is a preview of this weekend's Times Magazine.Skip to next
paragraph
One afternoon in February, _Al Gore_
(http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/g/al_gore/index.html?inline=nyt-per) was waiting to
board a commercial flight from Nashville to Miami, where he was to deliver the
slide show that forms the basis of “An Inconvenient Truth,” his Academy
Award-winning documentary on _global warming_
(http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/globalwarming/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier) . Gore was
telling me about Ilya Prigogine, a Belgian chemist who won a _Nobel Prize_
(http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/nobel_prizes/index.html?inline=ny
t-classifier) in 1977 for his insights into the thermodynamics of open
systems, an intriguing subject that has very little to do with global warming.
Every minute or so he flashed a microgrin at a passer-by without interrupting
his oratorical flow. We had moved on to complexity theory, which Gore would
really immerse himself in if only he had the time, and then to the concept of
nested systems, which of course had been developed by the late psychologist
Uri Bronfenbrenner, when a woman in a blazing orange shirt emerged from her
flight, did a double take and cried, “Isn’t that AL GORE?!” There was no
ignoring this fan. As she came over to thank Gore for trying to save the planet, I
saw that my bags were in the way. “I’ll move them,” I said; and Gore, before
he could think, said, “No, don’t.”
Six years after the Supreme Court declared him the loser of a presidential
race that seemed his for the taking, Al Gore has attained what you can only
call prophetic status; and he has done so by acting as he could not, or would
not, as a candidate — saying precisely what he believes, and saying it with
clarity, passion, intellectual mastery and even, sometimes, wit. Everywhere he
goes, people urge him, almost beg him, to run for the presidency. He probably
won’t — though he might. (“It’s complicated,” he told me, “but it’s not
mysterious.”) He says he thinks he’d be better at it this time than he was
last time. And he probably would be: Gore really does know how to hold 6,000
people in a room. But sometimes one person is one person too much for him.
Given his druthers, he’d really rather talk about complexity.
Gore is a gifted, and remorseless, explainer. Over the last three decades,
he has been trying to explain a complicated and unattractive idea that
scarcely anyone wanted to hear — that mankind has threatened its future on the
planet by massively increasing the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Now,
thanks in part to Gore himself, fewer and fewer people dispute this premise.
But winning the argument — the smoking-causes-cancer part — is only the
beginning. Gore and the country’s major environmental groups have now embarked
on a three-year effort, for which Gore hopes to raise hundreds of millions of
dollars, to persuade the American people, and the political parties, to take
drastic action to curb greenhouse gases. It is a campaign of such vast
ambition that you could almost imagine passing up a run at the presidency in order
to pursue it. “The central challenge,” he said to me later that evening, as
he was waiting to go onstage at the _University of Miami_
(http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/u/university_of_miami/index.htm
l?inline=nyt-org) , “is to expand the limits of what’s now considered
politically possible. The outer boundary of what’s considered plausible today still
falls far short of the near boundary of what would actually solve the
crisis.”
The Gores live in a whitewashed neoclassical mansion with a pillared
portico in the ritzy Nashville neighborhood of Belle Meade. _Tipper Gore_
(http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/g/tipper_gore/index.html?inl
ine=nyt-per) had agreed to meet me there, and we sat outside by the pool,
which was then still covered for the winter; a servant brought iced tea on a
tray, along with a vase of tulips. The whole setting was redolent of genteel
withdrawal; but inside, as if in generational counterpoint, Tipper, in days of
yore a drummer in a rock band, kept, and used, both a drum set and a conga
set. The former vice president, the more sedate and cerebral of the two, was
upstairs going over the galleys of his new book, “The Assault on Reason,” a
learned screed on the demise of public discourse and “the meritocracy of ideas”
scheduled to appear this week. I asked Tipper how long it had taken her
husband to get over the agony of 2000. She looked at her watch and laughed. “
What time is it now?” she asked. Neither of them, she said, has ever quite
gotten over it. They withdrew from Washington to Nashville, where they set about
fashioning a new life. In early 2001, she recalled, she said, “You know Al, why
don’t you do your slide presentation again?” For him, she said, it would be
“like going back to your roots.”
Gore had been using the slide show as a teaching tool on global warming for
more than 20 years. Now he switched from slide carousels and flip charts to
computer graphics and began barnstorming the country. He also contemplated
making another run at _George W. Bush_
(http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/b/george_w_bush/index.html?inline=nyt-per) , a prospect that
many of his own supporters regarded with ill-disguised dread. Gore
officially withdrew his name from the race in late 2002 and concentrated on preaching
the climate-change gospel and on making money as the vice chairman of Metwest
Financial, an asset-management firm. And now that he was liberated from the
political imperative of caution, Gore began to issue thunderous — and as it
turned out, highly prescient — jeremiads against the Bush administration. He
denounced the war in Iraq and what he saw as the administration’s reckless
encroachment on civil liberties and on the prerogatives of Congress. He became
the darling of the bloggers and the left. He supported the candidacy of
_Howard Dean_
(http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/d/howard_dean/index.html?inline=nyt-per) . (His prescience did not extend to politics.)
By 2005, climate science had advanced to the point where the urgency of
reducing CO2 emissions had become manifest, though only to the small circle of
cognoscenti. And that was the problem. Gore had talked himself blue on the
subject without making much headway. In mid-2005, he began talking to members of “
the green group,” as the environmental lobby is collectively known, about
marshaling a popularizing effort. Nature has a way of chipping in on climate
change, and the apocalyptic images of Hurricane Katrina, which hit New Orleans
at the end of August 2005, made such a campaign seem not only more urgent but
also more compelling. Gore was the obvious candidate to lead the crusade.
But the Al Gore of September 2005 was not the Saint Albert of today. That Al
Gore was a harsh partisan, and all too apt a symbol of the hectoring,
holier-than-thou stance of the environmental movement. “It was not clear then that
having him headline this was the best strategic approach,” says an official who
now works with Gore, “but they didn’t want to say that to him, because he
was their friend and ally. It was painful. It was like, ‘Maybe we need more
balance.’ ” Gore tried to solve the problem by seeking to attract _a
Republican_
(http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/r/republican_party/index.html?inline=nyt-org) as a partner, but one candidate after
another turned him down. And so, in December of that year, the board of the
Alliance for Climate Protection was established — without Al Gore.
The decision obviously rankled. When I asked Gore why the alliance had taken
so long to get in gear, he blurted out, “Because I wasn’t chairman of it.”
This actually appears to be true. In the ensuing months, according to one of
the alliance’s founders, “nothing happened, nothing happened and then
nothing happened. It was like the spaceship had gone around to the other side of
the moon.” Meanwhile Gore continued to proselytize the heathens, gaining
adherents by the hundreds and thousands. It had not occurred to him that he could
win converts by the million. But when he brought his slide show to the Beverly
Hilton in April 2005, he hit pay dirt. Laurie David, a former comedy
producer (and the wife of Larry David) who had become a leading environmental
activist, brought Gore to Hollywood; among the spectators was Lawrence Bender, a
producer whose films included “Pulp Fiction” and “Good Will Hunting.” Bender
received his very own form of revelation: “I immediately thought to myself,
This has got to be a movie.” Even a movie about a slide show could work, he
thought, so long as there was “an emotional way in”; and Gore would be that
way. Filming began over the summer, and the finished product was introduced at
the Sundance Festival in January of last year and quickly sold to a
distributor. The movie landed in theatres in May — warp speed by Hollywood standards.
Hundreds of thousands of filmgoers must have grudgingly yielded as I did,
passing in a matter of days from “I’m not going to an Al Gore vanity project”
to “Oh, fine” to “Yikes!” For all the gizmos and pyrotechnics, “An
Inconvenient Truth” required viewers to pay attention to real science. A review on
the Web site _realclimate.org_ (http://realclimate.org/) , which caters to the
academic climate crowd, concluded that Gore had handled the science “admirably,
” with only a few minor errors. One prominent climate scientist I spoke to,
Kerry Emanuel of _M.I.T._
(http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/m/massachusetts_institute_of_technology/index.html?inline=nyt-or
g) , did say that he felt Gore might be exaggerating the effects of
increased CO2 emissions. Others disagree. Perhaps the most remarkable summation came
from James Hansen, the director of the _NASA_
(http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/n/national_aeronautics_and_space_administra
tion/index.html?inline=nyt-org) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (and
one of Gore’s own gurus), who wrote, in The New York Review of Books, “Al Gore
may have done for global warming what ‘Silent Spring’ did for pesticides.”
“An Inconvenient Truth” did a great deal for Al Gore as well. The last time
he appeared in the consciousness of most Americans, six years earlier, he
was, to all appearances, an unhappy guy running against a happy guy; and
Americans like their presidential candidates to be happy. Gore now attributes this
impression to a “meta-narrative” diabolically scripted by _Karl Rove_
(http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/r/karl_rove/index.html?in
line=nyt-per) ; but meta-narratives stick for a reason. Gore seemed to find
the confines of a presidential campaign asphyxiating. And now, on screen, you
could see that he was breathing free. He was dead earnest, but he was also
wry; and though his torso still looked as blocky as a suitcase, he moved
around the stage as if someone had loosened a vertebra or two. You could feel his
enthusiasm, his alarm, his indignation.
“An Inconvenient Truth” erased the taint of partisanship from the Gore
persona. By last fall, he had become the chairman and prime mover of the Alliance
for Climate Protection. He hired a C.E.O. and began thinking about strategy.
Meanwhile, “An Inconvenient Truth” had been winning new converts, as the
slide show had before. Kevin Wall, a celebrated rock promoter who designed the “
media architecture” of the Live 8 global concerts in 2005, attended the
premiere and found himself thinking, as Bender had the year before, “How do we
take what Al has done with this movie to the next step, and reach billions of
people and really move the needle?” That next step was the global concert.
Wall signed up the BBC and NBC to broadcast the events, and MSN to provide
broadband coverage. Wall wasn’t thinking about Gore, but when the two met, Gore
suggested that the concerts, to be held this summer on July 7, serve as the
alliance’s launching pad.
Live Earth, as the event has been christened, will be just about the biggest
thing in planetary history, and all the profits will go to the alliance.
Concerts will be held on “all seven continents,” including Antarctica. For the
American concert, to be held at Giants Stadium in New Jersey, Wall has
commitments from the Police, Smashing Pumpkins, the Dave Matthews Band, Ludacris,
Alicia Keys and others; the European concert, at Wembley Stadium in London,
will include _Madonna_
(http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/m/_madonna/index.html?inline=nyt-per) , the Black Eyed Peas, the Beastie
Boys, Duran Duran and the Red Hot Chili Peppers. The host sites will have
wall-to-wall radio, broadcast, cable and online coverage; another 30 to 40
countries will be “very big,” Wall says, while satellite television and radio
broadcast will be available in 100 to 120 other nations.
Live Earth is only the beginning. On his laptop, Gore showed me a diagram
with a fleur-de-lis at the center and lines radiating out to indicate every
facet of the vast campaign. “An Inconvenient Truth” is a mighty instrument all
by itself: the book version has sold 850,000 copies worldwide, with a young
adult version fresh off the presses, and a children’s version in the works.
Twelve thousand people came to house parties last December to celebrate the
release of the DVD. The movie will be showing in schools, both here and abroad.
(It has already earned as much in foreign as in domestic sales.) Gore has
paid to have the slide show translated into 28 languages. He will also be
training volunteers to deliver the slide show in India and China, as he already
has, and will continue to do, here. He will be holding “solutions summits”
with corporate, political and scientific leaders; he was getting to work on a
new “Solutions” book as soon as he knocked off “The Assault on Reason.” A
children’s TV show was in the works, and a reality show as well. It’s going to
be all global warming, all the time.
But the core of everything is the three-year program of mass persuasion to
be conducted under the aegis of the Alliance for Climate Protection. The
alliance will not lobby or even propose specific solutions to global warming;
rather, it will seek to break the climate crisis out of the crunchy confines of
environmentalism. Global warming is going to have a giant product rollout.
Gore talks constantly about the need to move public opinion; he is convinced
that what now seem like forbidding political and technical obstacles to
drastically reducing carbon emissions will give way once we marshal the will to act.
And Gore says he believes that once people understand the science, they’ll
share his sense of urgency. Thanks to Hurricane Katrina, and balmy winters, and
animals evacuating their habitats, and all those terrifying pictures of
melting glaciers, that sense may already be taking hold. According to a recent
New York Times/CBS News poll, 78 percent of Americans believe that global
warming requires action “right away.”
Al Gore has given a great deal of thought to why some people still don’t
recognize the cliff we’re about to drive over. “The Assault on Reason” is Gore’
s own attempt to explain, as he put it to me, “why our public discourse is
so vulnerable to the kind of rope-a-dope strategies that Exxon Mobil and
their brethren have been employing for decades now, and why logic and reason and
the best evidence available and the scientific discoveries do not have more
force in changing the way we all think about the reality we are now facing.”
The very fact that Gore feels that this requires an explanation shows what a
high-minded rationalist he is. He says he believes that ideas were given a
fair hearing on their merits until television came along and induced a kind of
national trance. This is a hoary line of argument, but Gore adds a novel
neuropsychological twist, explaining that the brain’s fear center, the amygdala —“
which as I’m sure you know comes from the Latin for ‘almond’ ” — receives
only a trickle of electrical impulses from the neocortex, the seat of
reasoning, while sending back a torrent of data in return. This explains why “we
respond to spiders and snakes and claws and fire, but we are less likely to feel
urgency and alarm if the threat to our species is perceptible only by
connecting a lot of dots to make up a complex pattern that has to be interpreted by
the reasoning center of the brain” — well, it’s quite a challenge for the
explainer.
Whatever the merits of the TV-and-neurological-pathways argument, I couldn’t
help thinking that Gore was consoling himself, in a typically depersonalized
and abstract fashion, for, as he told me, “30 years of beating my head
against the wall.” Gore first learned about the buildup of greenhouse gases at
Harvard, and he began trying to publicize the issue soon after reaching Congress
in 1977. He made it a prominent part of his campaign for the _Democratic
nomination_
(http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/d/democratic_party/index.html?inline=nyt-org) for the presidency in 1988, at a
time when public awareness of global warming was close to zero. Finally, when
he became _Bill Clinton_
(http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/c/bill_clinton/index.html?inline=nyt-per) ’s vice president, he had
the chance to raise the issue at the highest levels. This proved to be a time
of tremendous frustration.
After the Republican House and Senate victories of 1994, environmental
groups, and their allies in Congress and the White House, were forced to fight a
desperate rear-guard action to protect core legislation, including the Clean
Water Act and Clean Air Act. Real progress on issues like gas-mileage
standards and the development of alternative fuels was next to impossible. “We got
slam-dunked on almost every issue,” as Kathleen McGinty, former head of the
White House Council on Environmental Quality, recalls; “and not just by
Republicans but by Democrats as well.” She and other former aides give Gore high
marks for steadfastness in the face of massive resistance. But the resistance
came not only from the business lobby and their allies in Congress but also from
some of the administration’s own top officials. As Gore himself recalls: “
It was seen as an arcane, hobbyhorse issue: We’ll indulge Vice President Gore,
and let him do his thing yet again, and then we’ll get back to what we know
is the serious stuff.”
This internal clash came to a head in 1997, with negotiations over the Kyoto
protocol on greenhouse-gas emissions, which the business community, and
above all the energy industry, vehemently opposed. Timothy Wirth, a committed
environmentalist and then under secretary of state for global affairs, assembled
a bipartisan advisory group of a dozen or so senators to build support for
the treaty. “I could not get a single White House official to come to any of
these meetings,” Wirth recalls. “They would not identify themselves with
Kyoto.” Wirth planned to assemble a range of such groups, as he had with earlier
pacts; but the White House took over the process before he could do so and
made no outreach effort. “It was a goddamn scandal,” Wirth says. “It was
horrible.” Wirth stepped down a few weeks before the treaty was to be finalized.
Gore was quite taken aback when I relayed Wirth’s remarks. “He’s not
talking about me,” he said. “I don’t know who he’s talking about.” But he also
adds: “If I had been president, would I have bent every part of the
administration and every part of the White House to support this? Yes, I would have.
Does that translate into criticism of President Clinton for not doing this? No.
I was vice president, not president.” Or maybe Gore would rather not do the
translation. When the international negotiations looked as if they were about
to collapse, in part owing to American resistance, Gore suggested that he fly
to Kyoto to demonstrate Washington’s commitment. David Sandalow, who worked
on environmental affairs at the _National Security Council_
(http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/n/national_security_council/i
ndex.html?inline=nyt-org) , recalls a meeting with a dozen advisers “in
which nobody recommended he go, with the range of opinion running from neutral to
strongly against.” Gore went anyway. “His arrival was galvanizing,”
Sandalow says. (Others are less convinced.) Gore returned in triumph — and instantly
encountered, he recalls, “resistance in the White House to even signing it,
much less submitting it to the Senate for ratification.” Gore used his last
dram of political capital to persuade Clinton to sign the Kyoto pact; it was
never sent to the Senate, where it surely would have died an ugly death. The
Clinton administration thus surrendered without firing a shot. For Gore, it was
a humiliating denouement.
Gore’s advisers in the 2000 campaign worried that he would commit political
suicide by global warming. The issue had advanced far enough in public
consciousness that George W. Bush saw fit to endorse regulating carbon emissions (a
position he promptly ignored once taking office). But it was still a net
loser. Gore says he believes that he lost West Virginia, and possibly Kentucky,
by calling for restrictions on coal-fired utilities. Gore could be excused a
case of epic bitterness; but his total immersion in a cause he deeply
believes in appears to have seen him through. The only what-if in which he indulged
during our time together was to say, only half-jokingly, that if he had had
the “presentation skills” he has since learned, “I think I’d be in my
second term as president.”
Ah, the presidency. There are Web sites, and even a political action
committee, dedicated to promoting a Gore candidacy. _James Carville_
(http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/c/james_carville/index.html?inline
=nyt-per) , the Democratic strategist, told Rolling Stone flatly, “He’s
going to run, and he’s going to be formidable.” Several of Gore’s aides from the
2000 race are said to have assembled a shadow campaign team should Gore
change his mind. But the people closest to Gore say, as one, that he does not so
much as raise the subject. “Al knows where the sirens are,” says Roy Neel,
who has been with Gore since the early days in Congress, “and he knows when it’
s not real.” He adds that Gore “has rejected offers to do any sort of
planning.” He has not, however, stopped others from planning on his behalf.
When I asked Gore why he hasn’t dismissed all the speculation by issuing a
Shermanesque refusal to stand, as he did in 2002, Gore said, “Having spent 30
years as part of the political dialogue, I don’t know why a 600-day campaign
is taken as a given, and why people who aren’t in it 600 days out for the
convenience of whatever brokers want to close the door and narrow the field and
say, ‘This is it, now let’s place your bets’ — If they want to do that,
fine. I don’t have to play that game.” This sounded a lot like “I can get in l
ate.” (Indeed, the buzz among the former aides is that Gore could jump in at
the end of 2007 should the current contenders show significant weakness.) A
few moments later, he said: “I’m not issuing a Shermanesque statement because
that’s not where I am. I’m not ruling it out for all time. Although I cannot
presently foresee any circumstances, such circumstances could emerge.”
“And such circumstances could emerge in 2008?”
“It’s extremely unlikely, but not impossible.”
In James Hansen’s view, which Gore shares, we have no more than 10 years to
level off the production of greenhouse gases; by 2050, despite massive
growth in population and the world economy, we must have cut global emissions to “
a fraction of what they are now.” Otherwise, we go over the cliff. This is
what Gore means when he says that the outer edge of the politically possible
falls short of the inner edge of the necessary; and this is why he believes
that the only hope is to transform the definition of the possible through a
campaign of mass persuasion. There are now half a dozen greenhouse-gas bills in
Congress; the most drastic of them would meet Hansen’s target through a
combination of tough gas-mileage standards, requirements that utilities resort to
alternative fuels and a market-based “cap and trade” system. Under such a
regime, mandated by the Kyoto Protocol and now in place in Europe, companies
receive an annual “allotment” of carbon emissions; those that produce even less
can sell their “credits” to those who can’t or won’t make it under the
bar. Of course this system works only if the annual “cap” starts low and gets
smaller and smaller every year. Gore’s great fear is that business lobbies and
lawmakers will unite around some kind of compromise legislation that will
demonstrate “commitment” without actually driving up the cost, or driving down
the permissible volume, of carbon emissions. And he views even the most
stringent legislation as inadequate.
Still, the monolith of apathy and opposition has begun to break up; and
because, as Gore says, social change, like climate change, is “nonlinear,” the
shift in public opinion may come about very suddenly. Major firms, including
_Wal-Mart_
(http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/wal_mart_stores_inc/index.html?inline=nyt-org) , are starting to see the economic logic of
going green. In January, a coalition of 10 big companies, including G.E.,
_DuPont_
(http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/du_pont_de_nemours_and_company_e_i/index.html?inline=nyt-org) and several major utilities,
banded together with environmental groups to call for reductions of up to 30
percent in greenhouse-gas emissions over the next 15 years. A number of
conservative Republicans in the Senate have quietly vowed to back tough legislation
now in committee, though President Bush would almost certainly veto such a
bill. China is rapidly gaining on the U.S. as the world’s leading source of
greenhouse-gas emission, but Gore says he believes that the Chinese government
is changing direction. He gave his slide show at the Great Hall of the People
in Beijing and found “a high degree of receptivity” to his message.
Scientists from China and other large developing nations recently signed off on an
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report calling for the immediate
imposition of a carbon-trading system or a carbon tax, and for a switch to
lower-carbon fuels.
Gore himself is writing, and traveling, and presenting, at a maniacal clip.
He’s even eating like a maniac: I watched him inhale the clam dip at a
reception like a man who doesn’t know when his next meal will be coming. Still, he
may have been thinner in 2000, but he’s happier today. One of his longtime
political supporters watched in amazement as Gore badgered Kevin Wall, the rock
promoter, into working with the Alliance for Climate Protection. Here was a
man who as a presidential candidate could barely ask anyone for a dollar,
much less browbeat them. “It was a total behavioral change,” says this old
ally. “It was just shocking.”
I told Gore that he seemed to be experiencing that
pleasure-in-the-midst-of-work that the psychologist Csikszentmihalyi called “flow.”
“Is that how you pronounce it?” Gore said. “His first name is Mihaly. He
also co-authored a cover story for Scientific American a few years ago on
television,” and on and on. I told Gore that he was far more deeply versed in the
work of Csikszentmihalyi than I was. He laughed so hard that he turned
purple.
James Traub is a contributing writer for the magazine.
Cynthia N. Vance
Strategics International Inc.
8245 SW 116 Terrace
Miami, Florida, 33156
305-378-1327; fax 305-378-9178
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