[Dialogue] Iraq dam failure could kill up to 500,000

[Harry Wainwright]

  MSNBC.com

  _____  

Iraq dam failure could kill up to 500,000 

Failure could unleash a trillion-gallon wave of water, killing up to 500,000

By Amit R. Paley 

The Washington Post

Updated: 2:22 a.m. ET Oct 30, 2007

AT THE MOSUL DAM, Iraq - The largest dam in Iraq
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Iraq?tid=informline>  is in
serious danger of an imminent collapse that could unleash a trillion-gallon
wave of water, possibly killing thousands of people and flooding two of the
largest cities in the country, according to new assessments by the U.S.
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/U.S.+Army+Corps+of+Engineer
s?tid=informline>  Army Corps of Engineers and other U.S. officials.

Even in a country gripped by daily bloodshed, the possibility of a
catastrophic failure of the Mosul
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Mosul?tid=informline>  Dam
has alarmed American officials, who have concluded that it could lead to as
many as 500,000 civilian deaths by drowning Mosul under 65 feet of water and
parts of Baghdad
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Baghdad?tid=informline>
under 15 feet, said Abdulkhalik Thanoon Ayoub, the dam manager. "The Mosul
dam is judged to have an unacceptable annual failure probability," in the
dry wording of an Army Corps of Engineers draft report.

At the same time, a U.S. reconstruction project to help shore up the dam in
northern Iraq has been marred by incompetence and mismanagement, according
to Iraqi officials and a report by a U.S. oversight agency to be released
Tuesday. The reconstruction project, worth at least $27 million, was not
intended to be a permanent solution to the dam's deficiencies.

"In terms of internal erosion potential of the foundation, Mosul Dam is the
most dangerous dam in the world," the Army Corps concluded in September
2006, according to the report to be released Tuesday. "If a small problem
[at] Mosul Dam occurs, failure is likely."

Behind-the-scenes wrangling
The effort to prevent a failure of the dam has been complicated by
behind-the-scenes wrangling between Iraqi and U.S. officials over the
severity of the problem and how much money should be allocated to fix it.
The Army Corps has recommended building a second dam downstream as a
fail-safe measure, but Iraqi officials have rejected the proposal, arguing
that it is unnecessary and too expensive.

The debate has taken place largely out of public view because both Iraqi and
U.S. Embassy officials have refused to discuss the details of safety studies
-- commissioned by the U.S. government for at least $6 million -- so as not
to frighten Iraqi citizens. Portions of the draft report were read to The
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/The+Washington+Post+Company
?tid=informline>  Washington Post by an Army Corps official who spoke on
condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. The Post
also reviewed an Army Corps PowerPoint
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Microsoft+PowerPoint?tid=in
formline>  presentation on the dam.

"The Army Corps of Engineers determined that the dam presented unacceptable
risks," U.S.
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Ryan+Crocker?tid=informline
>  Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker and Gen.
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/David+Petraeus?tid=informli
ne>  David H. Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq, wrote in a May 3 letter
to Prime Minister Nouri
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Nouri+al-Maliki?tid=informl
ine>  al-Maliki. "Assuming a worst-case scenario, an instantaneous failure
of Mosul Dam filled to its maximum operating level could result in a flood
wave 20 meters deep at the City of Mosul, which would result in a
significant loss of life and property."

Fundamental problem
Sitting in a picturesque valley 45 miles along the Tigris River north of
Mosul, the earthen dam has one fundamental problem: It was built on top of
gypsum, which dissolves when it comes into contact with water.

Almost immediately after the dam was completed in the early 1980s, engineers
began injecting the dam with grout, a liquefied mixture of cement and other
additives. More than 50,000 tons of material have been pumped into the dam
since then in a continual effort to prevent the structure, which can hold up
to 3 trillion gallons of water, from collapsing.

After the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, American officials began to
study risks posed by the dam, which they said were underestimated by Iraqis.

"Iraqi government believes dam is safe," concluded a 32-page PowerPoint
presentation prepared by the Army Corps and dated December 2006.

On a tour of the dam on a recent blistering afternoon, Ayoub, the manager,
contended that the dam was safe but acknowledged the unusual problems with
it.

Seepage from the dam funnels into a gushing stream of water that engineers
monitor to determine the severity of the leakage. Twenty-four clanging
machines churn 24 hours a day to pump grout deep into the dam's base. And
sinkholes form periodically as the gypsum dissolves beneath the structure.

"You cannot find any other dam in the world like this," said Ayoub, a
mustachioed man in a dark business suit who has worked at the dam since 1983
and has managed it since 1989.

Apocalyptic predictions
About two years ago, Ayoub became concerned that the pressure of the water
was putting the dam at risk of failure. So he ordered that the dam's water
level, which can reach 330 meters above sea level, not exceed 319 meters.

But reports prepared by the Army Corps of Engineers began to raise new
alarms.

"Mosul Dam is 'unsafe' in any definition," the PowerPoint presentation said.
It added: "Condition continually degrading" and "Failure mode is credible."
Under a section labeled "Consequences of Failure," it says: "Mass civilian
fatalities."

Ayoub said U.S. officials spoke in person about the dam in even more
apocalyptic terms. "They went to the Ministry of Water Resources and told
them that the dam could collapse any day," he said.

The report so alarmed the governor of Nineveh province, where the dam is
located, that he asked that it be drained of all water immediately, Ayoub
said.

Ayoub said he agrees that the most catastrophic collapse of the dam could
kill 500,000 people, but he said U.S. officials have not convinced him that
the structure is at high risk of collapse. "The Americans may very well be
right about the danger," Ayoub said. "I think it is safe enough that my
office is in the flood plain."

In an interview Monday night, Abdul Latif Rashid, Iraq's minister of water
resources, said that he believed the safety situation was not critical and
that he was more inclined to trust his engineers than American reports.

"Is the dam going to collapse tomorrow?" Rashid said. "I can't tell you
that. Let us hope that we avoid a disaster and focus now on a solution."

Stopgap measure?
The Army Corps has recommended that a partially constructed dam at Badush,
which lies between Mosul Dam and the city, be finished as a stopgap measure
in case Mosul Dam collapses.

But Salar Bakir Sami, director general of planning and development at the
Water Resources Ministry, said Iraqi government officials do not think it is
necessary to spend the estimated $10 billion for such a project. Instead, he
said, the ministry planned to spend $300 million to construct a smaller
version of the Badush dam that would generate electricity and provide
irrigation, but not serve as a safety valve in case Mosul Dam breaks.

Rashid said his top priority is to fix Mosul Dam by building a concrete wall
at its foundation that should shore up the design and provide "a permanent
solution." He said experts have just discovered cutting-edge technology that
would allow such a wall to be built, perhaps with construction starting by
next year at a cost of less than $1 billion.

In the report to be released Tuesday, the Office of the Special Inspector
General for Iraq Reconstruction, a federal oversight agency, found that
little of the reconstruction effort led by the U.S. Embassy has succeeded in
improving the dam. The office reviewed contracts worth $27 million, but an
embassy official said the total cost of the project was $34 million.

The review found that a Turkish company, which was paid $635,000 for a
contract awarded 19 months ago to build storage silos for cement, had done
so little and such poor-quality work that its project may have to be
restarted. One company contracted to design grout-mixing plants instead
submitted plans for unusable concrete-mixing plants. High-tech equipment
meant to help grouting is gathering dust because it won't work, according to
investigators.

Embassy and Army Corps officials noted that it has been difficult to conduct
oversight of the project because it is in a dangerous area. They said that
contracts with the worst businesses have been terminated and that steps have
been taken to ensure better management of the project in the future.

"Our focus is on whether the project that the Corps undertook got carried
out and the answer to that question is no," said Stuart
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/related/topic/Stuart+W.+Bowen+Jr.?tid=inf
ormline>  W. Bowen Jr., the special inspector general. "The expenditures of
the money have yielded no benefit yet."

C 2007 The Washington Post Company

URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21536128/

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