[Dialogue] 6 Signs The US May Be Headed for War in Iran

[Harry Wainwright]

Published on Thursday, March 13, 2008 by US News  <http://www.usnews.com/> &
World Report 

6 Signs The US May Be Headed for War in Iran

by Terry Atlas

Is the United States moving toward military action with Iran?

The resignation of the top U.S. military commander for the Middle East is
setting off alarms that the Bush administration is intent on using military
force to stop Iran's moves toward gaining nuclear weapons. In announcing his
sudden resignation today following a report on his views in Esquire, Adm.
William Fallon didn't directly deny that he differs with President Bush over
at least aspects of the president's policy on Iran. For his part, Defense
Secretary Robert Gates said it is "ridiculous" to think that the departure
of Fallon - whose Central Command has been working on contingency plans for
strikes on Iran as well as overseeing Iraq - signals that the United States
is planning to go to war with Iran.
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Fallon's resignation, ending a 41-year Navy career, has reignited the buzz
of speculation over what the Bush administration intends to do given that
its troubled, sluggish diplomatic effort has failed to slow Iran's nuclear
advances. Those activities include the advancing process of uranium
enrichment, a key step to producing the material necessary to fuel a bomb,
though the Iranians assert the work is to produce nuclear fuel for civilian
power reactors not weapons.

Here are six developments that may have Iran as a common thread. And, if it
comes to war, they may be seen as clues as to what was planned. None of them
is conclusive, and each has a credible non-Iran related explanation:

1. Fallon's resignation: With the Army fully engaged in Iraq, much of the
contingency planning for possible military action has fallen to the Navy,
which has looked at the use of carrier-based warplanes and sea-launched
missiles as the weapons to destroy Iran's air defenses and nuclear
infrastructure. Centcom commands the U.S. naval forces in and near the
Persian Gulf. In the aftermath of the problems with the Iraq war, there has
been much discussion within the military that senior military officers
should have resigned at the time when they disagreed with the White House.

2. Vice President Cheney's peace trip: Cheney, who is seen as a leading hawk
on Iran, is going on what is described as a Mideast trip to try to give a
boost to stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. But he has also scheduled
two other stops: One, Oman, is a key military ally and logistics hub for
military operations in the Persian Gulf. It also faces Iran across the
narrow, vital Strait of Hormuz, the vulnerable oil transit chokepoint into
and out of the Persian Gulf that Iran has threatened to blockade in the
event of war. Cheney is also going to Saudi Arabia, whose support would be
sought before any military action given its ability to increase oil supplies
if Iran's oil is cutoff. Back in March 2002, Cheney made a high-profile
Mideast trip to Saudi Arabia and other nations that officials said at the
time was about diplomacy toward Iraq and not war, which began a year later.

3. Israeli airstrike on Syria: Israel's airstrike deep in Syria last October
was reported to have targeted a nuclear-related facility, but details have
remained sketchy and some experts have been skeptical that Syria had a
covert nuclear program. An alternative scenario floating in Israel and
Lebanon is that the real purpose of the strike was to force Syria to switch
on the targeting electronics for newly received Russian anti-aircraft
defenses. The location of the strike is seen as on a likely flight path to
Iran (also crossing the friendly Kurdish-controlled Northern Iraq), and
knowing the electronic signatures of the defensive systems is necessary to
reduce the risks for warplanes heading to targets in Iran.

4. Warships off Lebanon: Two U.S. warships took up positions off Lebanon
earlier this month, replacing the USS Cole. The deployment was said to
signal U.S. concern over the political stalemate in Lebanon and the
influence of Syria in that country. But the United States also would want
its warships in the eastern Mediterranean in the event of military action
against Iran to keep Iranian ally Syria in check and to help provide air
cover to Israel against Iranian missile reprisals. One of the newly deployed
ships, the USS Ross, is an Aegis guided missile destroyer, a top system to
defense against air attacks.

5. Israeli comments: Israeli President Shimon Peres said earlier this month
that Israel will not consider unilateral action to stop Iran from getting a
nuclear bomb. In the past, though, Israeli officials have quite consistently
said they were prepared to act alone - if that becomes necessary - to ensure
that Iran does not cross a nuclear weapons threshold. Was Peres speaking for
himself, or has President Bush given the Israeli an assurance that they
won't have to act alone?

6. Israel's war with Hezbollah: While this seems a bit old, Israel's July
2006 war in Lebanon against Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces was seen at the
time as a step that Israel would want to take if it anticipated a clash with
Iran. The radical Shiite group is seen not only as a threat on it own but
also as a possible Iranian surrogate force in the event of war with Iran. So
it was important for Israel to push Hezbollah forces back from their
positions on Lebanon's border with Israel and to do enough damage to
Hezbollah's Iranian-supplied arsenals to reduce its capabilities. Since
then, Hezbollah has been able to rearm, though a United Nations force
polices a border area buffer zone in southern Lebanon.

Defense Secretary Gates said that Fallon, 63, asked for permission to
retire. Gates said the decision, effective March 31, was entirely Fallon's
and that Gates believed it was "the right thing to do." In Esquire, an
article on Fallon portrayed him as opposed to President Bush's Iran policy
and said he was a lone voice against taking military action to stop the
Iranian nuclear program. In his statement, Fallon said he agreed with the
president's "policy objectives" but was silent on whether he opposed aspects
of the president's plans. "Recent press reports suggesting a disconnect
between my views and the president's policy objectives have become a
distraction at a critical time and hamper efforts in the Centcom region,"
Fallon, said in the statement issued by Centcom headquarters in Tampa, Fla.
"And although I don't believe there have ever been any differences about the
objectives of our policy in the Central Command area of responsibility, the
simple perception that there is makes it difficult for me to effectively
serve America's interests there," he said. Gates announced that Fallon's top
deputy, Army Lt. Gen. Martin Dempsey, will take over temporarily when Fallon
leaves. A permanent successor, requiring nomination by the president and
confirmation by the Senate, might not be designated in the near term.

C 2008 US News & World Report

Article printed from www.CommonDreams.org 

URL to article: http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/03/13/7676/

 

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